Sporting An Opinion

It is possible that Australia doesn’t finish the Super Eight on top. Of course, at the moment it is a theoretical possibility. But if anyone can beat Australia, it is one of their next two opponents Sri Lanka or New Zealand. And Australia would be well aware of this fact. Sri Lanka has played some outstanding cricket so far barring the one loss to South Africa and they have the bowling firepower and variety to take the fight to Australia.

Australia has also played high-class cricket but they have not been tested so far. Their top order has sure fired with Adam Gilchrist and Matthew Hayden in good form and Ricky Ponting is always a real threat. But thereafter, it does look a little slim. Missing are stalwarts like Damien Martyn and Michael Bevan or even Ian Harvey. Michael Clarke is reliable but can be put under pressure and Mike Hussey has struggled all through the tournament. Andrew Symonds is just returning from injury and has not looked good enough against quality bowling. Brad Hodge, one would think, is a good player to have in the side and he was in very good form too when he was dropped for Symonds. Bringing him in over Hussey or Symonds could strengthen the middle order for Australia.

This weak middle order is exactly what Sri Lanka will target with their variety of bowlers! To get to the middle order of course, they need to knock over the top two first and they will hope Chaminda Vaas continues his habit of a wicket in the opening spell. Lasith Malinga is a doubtful starter but even without him, they have enough quick bowlers to trouble the best of batting line-ups. And then there’s Murali.

Another aspect the Aussies would have to watch out for is superior Sri Lankan fielding. So far, they have only played South Africa with fielding that is comparable but now, they are up against a really world class outfit that can match them man to man. Australia would also have to worry about inexperience in the bowling. Shaun Tait is someone who could well be taken apart by the likes of Jayasuriya, Sangakkara and the ‘now back in form’ Mahela Jayawardene.

The Grenada pitch does offer some bounce and movement early on and neither team would be too keen to bat first. Let’s hope the toss doesn’t decide the winner.

Had things gone according to plan in the group stages, Sunday, April 15 would have seen India take on Pakistan in the World Cup. As it turns out, it is going to be Ireland versus Bangladesh! Not to belittle the teams, but the fact is that with India and Pakistan both missing out on the second stage, a lot of the sheen has been taken off the tournament.

In most respects, this seems like a match up of equals, but Bangladesh would have the upper hand having beaten India and South Africa. Ireland did beat Pakistan, but in the Super Eight, they have been thrashed by most teams.

Bangladesh will not finish at the bottom of the table and would like to make sure there are no loopholes in that by beating Ireland. They still have a match left against the West Indies, but no one expects them to win that. Nonetheless, while Sunday’s match won’t exactly be the most exciting of all, it could put up some good cricket.

The real matches of difference, though, are on Monday and Tuesday. Australia takes on Sri Lanka and South Africa faces England. The South Africa-England match is a playoff now with New Zealand beating the Proteas on Saturday but Australia v Sri Lanka is for the top spot in the final standings.

Australia is way ahead on their net run rate and Sri Lanka could well yet take the top spot with two wins; their last match is against Ireland! Australia, on the other hand, could lose both their next matches (against Sri Lanka and New Zealand and well find themselves in second or even third place. But the question is who from New Zealand and Sri Lanka are desperate enough to avoid Australia in the semi-final? A better question, perhaps, would be does it matter?

In the knock out stage (which is really just the semi-final), one bad day and Australia could be out. And most teams making it to that stage would be giving it their all so the possibility cannot be ruled out. For the moment, the semi-final line-up looks to point to Sri Lanka versus New Zealand and Australia versus South Africa (we assume England won’t be able to beat South Africa).

After a crushing defeat at the hands of Sri Lanka, New Zealand needs to bounce back quickly to remain in the running for a semi-final berth. Things have not yet become tough for the Kiwis, but their next match is against a resurgent South Africa and it’s not expected to be an easy outing. Stephen Fleming would be worried about the performance of his top order against the Lankans but he will hope to bat second against South Africa considering a battery of pacemen.

For South Africa, team selection will be a bit of an issue with Andre Nel showing form in his last match. But a one-dimensional attack against New Zealand could be trouble and they will want Peterson to play a big part. Graeme Smith was tonked around a bit against the West Indies but that was at the fag end of the match. He will still be looking for consistency and some penetration from his bowlers.

Smith has gone on record to say that he won’t want to worry about net run rate and would prefer to go through with an outright win record, but it’s perhaps not the smartest thing to do. While Smith can ensure his team does their best, he can’t guarantee what happens in other matches. On that front, Stephen Fleming seems to have his plans correct. He is worrying about the net run rate and if not for qualification, it could help ensure they don’t bump into Australia in the semis itself!

The key players for New Zealand would obviously be Scott Styris and Shane Bond while for South Africa, it would be Jacques Kallis and Shaun Pollock. Similar styles for all opposing numbers and the match does seem like an equal contest on paper. It would finally come down to the planning, pitch and nerves. Who will hold out better?

New Zealand needs this win to ensure they go through while South Africa needs it to keep England away and not make their game against England a playoff. At the moment, it’s just too close to call but one would have to say South Africa; they just seem more aggressive than the Kiwis despite having lost to Bangladesh.

Okay, so it may not exactly be yawn-inducing, but the format of this World Cup is just too long-drawn for anyone to be able to retain interest. It’s a tough balancing act for organisers as the tournament’s Chief Executive Chris Dehring said. “The length of the tournament was dictated by the decision to allow a reserve day for every match in case it was washed out, after weather disruptions at the 2003 tournament in South Africa,” he said.

But that’s still no excuse for a tournament to last 45 days! And Australia captain Ricky Ponting agrees. One of the latest critics of the format, he has in fact challenged the organisers to come up with a better format for 2011 in the subcontinent. But what can this be? In 1999, the Super Six was first introduced. It was a disaster then and again in 2003. So the Super Eight came about. And it allowed the inclusion of the top eight teams. Of course the fact that India and Pakistan are not playing has made it tougher to keep audiences tuned in, but the fact remains that 45 days is far too long.

The 2006 FIFA World Cup lasted 31 days and that included 32 teams. Of course weather has almost no bearing on a football match and in the case of cricket, there need to be arrangements in case of bad weather. In the Caribbean this time, there are nine venues and each venue gets more than a couple of matches. So obviously the interest of the locals would be minimised. In 2011, with four countries hosting, seventeen venues will be available in 2011 and of course the venue itself would ensure bigger crowds! But the format cannot remain same. It’s just too long. The ICC’s point is to bring the top eight teams into the second stage. Of course the number of teams are to remain the same (16) and it would perhaps work well if there were two groups of eight each with the top four going through to the quarter-final and then the semis and final making the second stage quicker and more viewer-friendly.

In this edition, a total of 55 matches would be played. With two groups, the number of matches would increase to 63 but one can’t help feel it would be quicker. The group stages can certainly have two matches on a day (with the exception of big matches) and it could speed up the whole process. And the excitement of the knockout could start much sooner.

There would be minimal weather concerns in February/March in the subcontinent and reserve days would not be required (except maybe in Bangladesh) and the tournament could well be finished in about 30 days; a full two weeks sooner! The group stages could be done with in about 20 days and the knockout in the next 10-12 days. The ICC has about two years before it has to finalise and announce the format and it would do well to listen to fans and players too.

Yes, the race for the four semi-final slots is hotting up. And the equation is changing everyday. At the moment, New Zealand and Australia are certainties to make it through, but New Zealand has three very tough matches coming up. And if they lose all, they could still be eliminated! England, on the other hand perhaps has the clearest brief of all: beat South Africa and West Indies. But what are the various possibilities?

New Zealand plays Sri Lanka on April 12, South Africa on April 14 and Australia on April 20. They need to win one to make sure they are ahead of at least one of the five contenders. But after that, they also need to ensure that they avoid Australia in the semi-final. To do that, they would be better off winning two! Simple on paper, tough on the field.

South Africa’s loss to Bangladesh has made life tougher for them. They now must win both remaining matches, the one against New Zealand on April 14 and the one against England on April 17. But with both England and New Zealand needing to win, South Africa’s task becomes that much tougher. Their win over Ireland was convincing, but then again, that was Ireland!

For Sri Lanka, there is one match they can count on winning: against Ireland on April 18. But that may count for nothing if they fail to beat New Zealand and Australia (April 16). That is, of course, assuming that everything else goes according to plan for England and South Africa.

Australia is also potentially in a position from where they could be knocked out. They play Ireland next (April 13) followed by Sri Lanka (April 16) and New Zealand (April 20). They certainly will win against Ireland and that should take them through to the semi-final. Losing to Sri Lanka and New Zealand is a possibility but Australia has their record of being unbeaten in World Cups to maintain. So it won’t be an easy outing for either SL or NZ. The remaining 10 days of the Super Eight matches will be exciting with a crucial match almost every second day. And every match could prove to be the last one for someone. Or it could bring added hope.

With the West Indies already knocked out, the race is really on between England, South Africa and Sri Lanka for the remaining two slots. Sri Lanka still has one easy game left and it could all come down to the England v South Africa match on April 17 to see who is fourth semi-finalist. In some ways, England is reminiscent of Pakistan in 1992 when they came from the brink to take the Cup. Does England have the heart?

No? We thought as much! There weren’t many on show either. And it was their home tournament; one they expected to do well in. But unfortunately, one again, internal politics and lack of coherence in the team (much like India, really) got the better of them. Brian Lara tried, both as captain and batsman, but after the first few matches, there was an air of resignation around him. None of his young stars had delivered and didn’t even look like they belonged there.

Dwayne Bravo was the next big thing in West Indian cricket but scores of 9, 16, 37*, 18 and 6 (not in any order) hardly indicate the talent that lies there. The 37*, his highest for the tournament, was against Zimbabwe and came in 54 balls. Like most others in the team, Bravo also did not look like he was interested in excelling. West Indies had promised much after their win over Pakistan (the win that came after being mauled by India) but just did not deliver.

One only hopes that players like Bravo don’t go the route some recent West Indian talents have. Franklin Rose, Ricardo Powell and Pedro Collins (where is he?) are a few of names that race to mind. In fact, so strong was Ricardo Powell’s aura that it completely destroyed him! He last played for the West Indies in 2005 (August 7 against India in Colombo) and will perhaps never play for them again. He was in the team for a good six years and some may argue that constitutes a career. On the international stage, though, he should have been able to put in a few more years. He was only 25 when he was dropped and at 27, is still in contention. But when was the last time you heard his name?

Franklin Rose is another such player. A true one-series wonder, he decimated India in 1996-97 and by 2000, was out of the team. Fifty-three wickets in 19 Tests over three years is not a record any international player wants to be credited with. But the problem is that he was never groomed to last on the international stage. Just like Powell and Collins weren’t. Collins is still in contention and with Darren Powell can form a potent opening bowling combination. But are the Windies prepared to take care of them as players and show them how to deal with stardom? It’s all part of the game. And to be fair, they could not handle Lara too well either. It was more Lara being handled by everyone else and keeping his wits about him that let him stay in the game for the last 16 years.

Again one can argue that players like Runako Morton, Marlon Samuels, Ramnaresh Sarwan, Shivnarine Chanderpaul and Chris Gayle are stars in their own right. No argument. But to move from being stars “in their own right” to genuine stars, they need that final push. They need a winning team. They all have the talent, but they don’t seem to use it at the same time. And to do that for over 10 years is a fantastic achievement!

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Do the stats say it all? There have been 36 matches in the World Cup so far and the stats are starting to reveal why a team may do better than others! Take Sri Lanka for instance. Lasith Malinga, with 15 wickets, is the top wicket-taker and is averaging better than Glenn McGrath. In fact, he has an economy rate of almost the same as Pigeon and a better strike rate. And McGrath is Australia’s best performer.

The other two in the top four are Brad Hogg (12 wickets at 18 runs each) followed by Muttiah Muralitharan (12 wickets at 18.75 each). Daniel Vettori (12 wickets at 20.91 each), another spinner, rounds off the top five. This is an indicator that the wickets are supporting good bowlers and not just a type of bowler. It also tells us that the wicket is slowing down in the second inning (unless you have someone like Malinga who doesn’t bother with the pitch!) and the spinners are enjoying this period more.

The other thing that these stats may point to is the potential winner. With such performers in their side, Australia and Sri Lanka may have a better chance of winning, but New Zealand is just as good. South Africa also has a couple of bowlers, but these are not the ones they would have liked.

Australia also leads the batting numbers with Matthew Hayden and Ricky Ponting in the top five, but South Africa has numbers two and three locked up with Jacques Kallis and Graeme Smith. Interesting reading that can offer. It means that the South African batting is doing better than the bowling! And there’s a chink in the armour! Ditto for Sri Lanka, but the other way around.

The West Indies is the worst performing of all barring the presence of Darren Powell in the bowling list. They have really disappointed and it’s no surprise that they have no chance of progressing.

These numbers may not reveal too much at the moment, but if you were to revisit them at the end of the tournament, the trends they set right now will hold good. It also indicates an Australia v South Africa final. But New Zealand is on top of the standings and by the time the semi-final line-up is finalised, it could well be an Australia v South Africa semi-final! Brilliant uncertainty!