Sporting An Opinion

In all preceding World Cups, a captain’s good form has often an indicator of whether a team could win the tournament or not. In 1987, Allan Border led the way; in 1992, Imran Khan was at the forefront, in 1996, Arjuna Ranatunga was there right at the end while in 1999 Steve Waugh had a defining moment. In 2003, Ricky Ponting was the centurion in the final and in 2007, we had four captains, all in the semi-finals, in fine touch. One of them has now fallen (away) but the other three are still there to fight.

Of these three, one more shall fall today. Graeme Smith is young, brash and to a large extent, greatly talented. He has what it takes to play against Australia, but he may be missing what is needed to win against them. Ricky Ponting, on the other hand, is a captain who has never lost in the World Cup and he isn’t about to let that record go now! Aiming for his second straight final and a shot at becoming only the second captain ever to win two World Cups after Clive Lloyd (1975 and 1979), he is a man on a mission and in the best form he has been in for a long time. In fact, his form has not dipped over the last few years!

Facing off today, these two captains will rewrite history no matter what. An Australian loss could trigger a change in the world order of cricket, while a South African loss will get Australia closer to that third consecutive title. Like we said before, South Africa has the team, the players, but they suffer from no mental strength and conviction to proceed any further.

There will be a lot of players on both sides who may hang up their boots after their World Cup is over. For players like Shaun Pollock, Jacques Kallis, Herschelle Gibbs and Mark Boucher, there is also the ghost of 1999 to exorcise. Whether they are thinking about that or not (and they claim not to), it will be a tool Australia will use against them come game time. For some players like Adam Gilchrist who don’t know what it’s like not to win a World Cup, a loss could indeed be shattering. He has been in the Australian World Cup team since 1999, a loss in the tournament is unheard of. In fact, he has lost only two matches in three World Cups and while some may argue that it’s unfair and it will level out sooner or later, the fact is it may not happen this time.

There is a lot that is going for an Australian win at the moment and South Africa are the underdogs. They should make use of that situation and play naturally without undue pressure. Even if many believe that only South Africa could beat Australia, the cannot think of this once they are on the field. A good semi-final is promised again, but let’s hope it isn’t as one-sided as the first one.

After everything that has been said, done, won, lost, it all comes down to two good days. Forget the last month-and-a-half. Congratulations to the four semi-finalists. Now, do they have the stomach for two more outstanding performances?

And outstanding is what is required. New Zealand takes on Sri Lanka today and in a perfect match-up, Muttiah Muralitharan will be the biggest threat to New Zealand’s slightly spin-scared batsmen. For Sri Lanka, they need to watch out for the big man, Shane Bond.

The last two World Cups threw up some badly one-sided semi-finals and finals. Apart from the legendary Australia versus South Africa semi-final in 1999, there haven’t been too many good matches at this stage since almost 1996. But one gets the feeling that this time, there will be more fight in both the semi-finals and the final.

For one of the two teams today, it will be goodbye. But that will perhaps not be because they played badly. It could be more because they were overwhelmed by the occasion and could not handle the big match pressure. Sri Lanka and New Zealand have had relatively easy routes to the semi-final unlike South Africa who really had to fight it out. So if any team cannot handle the pressure, it could be one of these two.

Sri Lanka and New Zealand are perhaps the best-matched teams of the tournament. They both won five of their seven Super Eight matches; both lost a game to Australia (well, who didn’t?) and while Sri Lanka beat New Zealand in their match, that probably won’t count for much in the semi-final where the stakes are so much higher.

It is rather tough to pick out a winner from these two since both have a good batting and bowling line-up. But on the topic of who would want to chase, one has to think it’s Sri Lanka. They have a slightly better defined batting order and New Zealand would fancy their chances of restricting Sri Lanka to a manageable total. On the question of what is a manageable total, it’s tough to say.

The curator of the Sabina Park in Jamaica thinks the team winning the toss should bowl first which indicates the presence of moisture and assistance to bowlers early on. This could also mean that the target the team batting first sets won’t be in excess of 300. But as we have seen throughout the World Cup, the team batting first can get steamrolled in the second session if their total is not competitive.

Once again, we won’t hazard a guess about the winner. It’s come down to the final four and in five days, there may be a new World Champion. The battle begins today.

It is possible that Australia doesn’t finish the Super Eight on top. Of course, at the moment it is a theoretical possibility. But if anyone can beat Australia, it is one of their next two opponents Sri Lanka or New Zealand. And Australia would be well aware of this fact. Sri Lanka has played some outstanding cricket so far barring the one loss to South Africa and they have the bowling firepower and variety to take the fight to Australia.

Australia has also played high-class cricket but they have not been tested so far. Their top order has sure fired with Adam Gilchrist and Matthew Hayden in good form and Ricky Ponting is always a real threat. But thereafter, it does look a little slim. Missing are stalwarts like Damien Martyn and Michael Bevan or even Ian Harvey. Michael Clarke is reliable but can be put under pressure and Mike Hussey has struggled all through the tournament. Andrew Symonds is just returning from injury and has not looked good enough against quality bowling. Brad Hodge, one would think, is a good player to have in the side and he was in very good form too when he was dropped for Symonds. Bringing him in over Hussey or Symonds could strengthen the middle order for Australia.

This weak middle order is exactly what Sri Lanka will target with their variety of bowlers! To get to the middle order of course, they need to knock over the top two first and they will hope Chaminda Vaas continues his habit of a wicket in the opening spell. Lasith Malinga is a doubtful starter but even without him, they have enough quick bowlers to trouble the best of batting line-ups. And then there’s Murali.

Another aspect the Aussies would have to watch out for is superior Sri Lankan fielding. So far, they have only played South Africa with fielding that is comparable but now, they are up against a really world class outfit that can match them man to man. Australia would also have to worry about inexperience in the bowling. Shaun Tait is someone who could well be taken apart by the likes of Jayasuriya, Sangakkara and the ‘now back in form’ Mahela Jayawardene.

The Grenada pitch does offer some bounce and movement early on and neither team would be too keen to bat first. Let’s hope the toss doesn’t decide the winner.

After a crushing defeat at the hands of Sri Lanka, New Zealand needs to bounce back quickly to remain in the running for a semi-final berth. Things have not yet become tough for the Kiwis, but their next match is against a resurgent South Africa and it’s not expected to be an easy outing. Stephen Fleming would be worried about the performance of his top order against the Lankans but he will hope to bat second against South Africa considering a battery of pacemen.

For South Africa, team selection will be a bit of an issue with Andre Nel showing form in his last match. But a one-dimensional attack against New Zealand could be trouble and they will want Peterson to play a big part. Graeme Smith was tonked around a bit against the West Indies but that was at the fag end of the match. He will still be looking for consistency and some penetration from his bowlers.

Smith has gone on record to say that he won’t want to worry about net run rate and would prefer to go through with an outright win record, but it’s perhaps not the smartest thing to do. While Smith can ensure his team does their best, he can’t guarantee what happens in other matches. On that front, Stephen Fleming seems to have his plans correct. He is worrying about the net run rate and if not for qualification, it could help ensure they don’t bump into Australia in the semis itself!

The key players for New Zealand would obviously be Scott Styris and Shane Bond while for South Africa, it would be Jacques Kallis and Shaun Pollock. Similar styles for all opposing numbers and the match does seem like an equal contest on paper. It would finally come down to the planning, pitch and nerves. Who will hold out better?

New Zealand needs this win to ensure they go through while South Africa needs it to keep England away and not make their game against England a playoff. At the moment, it’s just too close to call but one would have to say South Africa; they just seem more aggressive than the Kiwis despite having lost to Bangladesh.

Every World Cup brings to the fore a new set of stars who one expects will replace some of the outgoing ones. On current evidence, there are a whole of lot of outgoing ones, but not nearly as many new ones on the horizon. Or are there?

Lasith Malinga is undoubtedly the latest bowling sensation to hit the cricketing world. His unusual action with some pretty good control and a heroic effort against South Africa have ensured he is in the news. And the Sri Lankans know that in Malinga, they have a future star and performer. They need to protect him against burnout and ensure he can play as long as possible.

The West Indies may have argued that Jerome Taylor is a new rising phenom but the team’s results are just not good enough. Nonetheless, he is a talent and something of a rarity in the West Indies: fast, accurate and wicket-taking! Another asset that needs to be managed well lest he also go the route some other promising talent did (remember Franklin Rose?).

Of course, more stars are born out of a situation more than choice. By that argument, players like Paul Collingwood, Shaun Tait, Andrew Flintoff, Shane Bond, Monty Panesar, Herschelle Gibbs, Graeme Smith and many others still have a chance to make an impact. They have already done their bit but as we get closer to the part where nerves start to jangle, a player’s character would be tested. Even for someone like Malinga, could he repeat half his 4-in-4 in the semis against Australia? That would be the true test of his character.

It’s not all about the young stars, though. Old hands like Jacques Kallis, Sanath Jayasuriya, Matt Hayden, Ricky Ponting, Glenn McGrath, Chaminda Vaas, Muttiah Muralitharan and Shaun Pollock have already tasted success. With almost all the above playing in their last World Cup, the scramble to finish on a high is going to be tremendous! Which is where a little help from the younger stars in the team won’t hurt! A couple of exceptional performances from some of the younger players would go a long way and the experience of the seniors could well win the day!

So who has the best combination of the young and the old stars? We would think Sri Lanka!

The first two weeks of the World Cup were expected to be an extended practice session but have instead thrown out two big names: India and Pakistan. And in their place come Bangladesh and Ireland who may not give the big six any trouble, but rather just the odd scare! So with the major six teams virtually guaranteed two wins in the Super Eight, it really comes down to who can hold their own against the rest! Let’s look at all the contenders (yes, all eight!).

Australia: Still the favourites and especially after their win over South Africa, their chances look better than ever. Can anyone beat them? New Zealand has shown the aptitude but that was at home. England beat Australia in Australia, but since then, they have had problems of their own. South Africa is expected to beat them and maybe on a bigger ground, could well do so. Sri Lanka is in good enough form to beat anyone, but against Australia, it’s more a question of confidence than skill. At the moment, a spot in the final looks assured! Team Australia

South Africa: They may not have lived up to their number one billing against Australia, but they are a good team, albeit predictable. They miss that one enigmatic performer, that outstanding talent who could make the difference… a Shane Bond, or an Andrew Symonds or even a Kevin Pietersen. Herschelle Gibbs is as close as they can get, but he delivers rather rarely these days. They are still strong enough to make the semi-final, though, but no further. Mental toughness is still lacking and the bowling looked fairly ragged against Australia. Team South Africa

Sri Lanka: The win over India would have given Sri Lanka a lot of confidence. For one, they eliminated one of the biggest teams and a team that had just beaten them convincingly. For another, they showed strength of character and a team spirit that is a must to win at such a tournament. Their batting looks great, bowling outstanding and fielding stupendous! Can they be stopped? Only by the devils in their mind! Team Sri Lanka

England: In some ways, they have a chance. But in all practicality, they don’t seem to have the drive that is needed. Recent events that showed a lack of team spirit have further dented confidence. Freddie Flintoff returned to take the English home against Kenya, but the bigger teams in the Super Eight will be a different proposition altogether. Semi-finalists? Really outside chance. Team England

New Zealand: They were in great form against Australia and also have the mental upper hand against them. Should the two meet in the final, many may just bet against Australia! Much of New Zealand’s strength lies in the number of utilitarian players they have. Jacob Oram, Scott Styris, Craig McMillan, Brendon McCullum… all do dual roles and as a result, the batting and bowling line-ups are long. They have a good chance to go all the way provided they don’t shoot themselves in the foot. Team New Zealand

West Indies: They haven’t looked good enough and the pressure of playing at home will get to them sooner or later. The troubles lie at the top of the order with Chris Gayle not coming into any sort of form. Chanderpaul played well against Ireland, but that can’t say much! Lara, Sarwan and Samuels have all done well in the past but they need to put together a string of good performances over 3 weeks to make it further. Doubt if they can do that. Team West Indies

Bangladesh: They have played well to make it thus far, but this where they will find themselves out of depth. One will be the pressure of consistent matches and the other of the opposition. Most teams will look at a Bangladesh match as a good chance to up their run rate and the Bangla boys may just suffer. Well done, but they will not go any further. Team Bangladesh

Ireland: A tie against Zimbabwe saw them through to the second round at the expense of Pakistan. Had Zimbabwe won on that day, Ireland could well have gone home and Pakistan, through. But a win over Pakistan deserves to be rewarded and a place in the second round is what they will have to show for it. Once again, they will be the whipping boys even for Bangladesh. A couple of good matches will do them no harm and they should be realistic about their chances. Team Ireland

To sum it up, Australia and Sri Lanka would be worthy finalists with Sri Lanka having a good chance to win the tournament on current form. New Zealand would be the third favourites while anyone else would be a big surprise!
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Friday the 23rd could either be known as an outstanding day in India’s World Cup campaign or it could be thought of as a day as inauspicious as Friday the 13th! Unfortunately, it does have the same ring and sound to it! Without sounding defeatist, one has to acknowledge that the task facing India is an uphill one with Sri Lanka looking in World Cup-winning form.

India’s batting has come good in the previous match but that was a Bermuda bowling attach without the fire that Chaminda Vaas, Muttiah Muralitharan, Lasith Malinga and Fervez Maharoof will come with. And then there’s the small matter of an in-form Sanath Jayasuriya and Kumara Sangakkara.

India has a few things to sort out before the match. They have already tried two opening partnerships with neither coming good. For a big match like this, though, the decision will not be easy. There will be the temptation of pushing up Tendulkar to open with Ganguly but his batting down the order against Bermuda was inspirational to say the least. Opening with Uthappa will offer some more leniency down the order, but India will need a good start whether they bat first or second.

Which brings us to another major problem: bat first or second? The easiest option will be to lose the toss and not have to make the decision. But should India win the toss, batting second would give India a better chance on two fronts. One, they can use the early morning pitch and second, have an exact idea of what to do when they bat.

It is important for India, though, to go into the match with a positive frame of mind keeping in mind recent successes against the Sri Lankans. Unfortunately, these were achieved against a team without Murali or Vaas. And Jayawardene was also out of form then. All these things have changed and India has a much tougher task ahead. Are they up to it?

The big three of Tendulkar, Dravid and Ganguly need to score and India has to ensure early wickets whether they bowl first or second. Sounds simple and all the theories and plans will now need to be put to test. Today could well be the day when India is either sent packing back home or kickstarts their campaign. Let’s not even worry about the Bermuda versus Bangladesh match.

Today, March 21, 2007 is going to be a big day for India in the ICC Cricket World Cup 2007. Although India does not play today, a lot would depend on how things go between Bangladesh and Sri Lanka who face off in Trinidad & Tobago today. There really are only three scenarios:

Sri Lanka beats Bangladesh
This seems the most obvious outcome and will then make the group very interesting with the second round places not being decided until March 25 when Bangladesh plays Bermuda. But again, the margin of victory would be of interest to India. For India’s sake, SL needs to beat BAN by a very big margin; one big enough to make even a huge win for BAN over BER look pointless. But that’s for India’s sake, really! For their own sake, they just need to win! And then India would need to beat SL comfortably to see Bangladesh fall further behind on the net run-rate.

Bangladesh beats Sri Lanka
Now this would truly open up some possibilities. For one, it would put Bangladesh in the best position to qualify and even a close win over Bermuda later in the week would see them through and with two points! But this scenario would turn the India v Sri Lanka match into a knock out game with the loser certainly going home.

Washout/Tie
If today’s match is washed out or tied, it doesn’t help India much since it allows both Sri Lanka and Bangladesh to go ahead of India on points. For India, this may help: if the Bermuda v Bangladesh match ends with a point being shared and Sri Lanka has beaten Bangladesh, India may just have a better chance of going through. Of course, India needs to beat Sri Lanka for any of this to be of consequence, but assuming that happens, then the rains on Sunday could well make Group B clearer!

Whatever the outcome, the task for India is clear: beat Sri Lanka by a hefty margin. What happens in the other matches won’t really affect them in that case. Ah, but if Bangladesh can beat Sri Lanka, then the fruits of a successful task on Friday are more assured!

There is growing uneasiness among all teams gathered in the Caribbean and understandably so. The World Cup officially kicks off next week, but for two weeks after that, there’s just one key match per team. For the fans, there are just four important matches. Here are the dates to remember and the matches that will be worth following in round 1:

March 13: West Indies v Pakistan (Jamaica)
March 16: England v New Zealand (St. Lucia)
March 23: India v Sri Lanka (Trinidad)
March 24: Australia v South Africa (St. Kitts)

Of all these teams, Pakistan would consider themselves unluckiest. They start their campaign with the most important match in the first round and they stand to lose momentum by the time they play next in the Super Eight stage. Their chances of winning are also not the best with the West Indies enjoying the home advantage and having had a better time of it lately. In the 12 days or so between their first match and the first Super Eight match (assuming they finish second in Group D), the will play Zimbabwe and Ireland. Bob Woolmer has a task on his hands.

For the betting inclined, here are the current odds as published by Ladbrokes: Australia 9/4, South Africa 4/1, Sri Lanka 7/1, West Indies 7/1, England 8/1, India 8/1, New Zealand 8/1, Pakistan 12/1. Australia is obvious favourites despite their recent form. South Africa is a close second, Sri Lanka and West Indies third followed by England, India and New Zealand and finally, Pakistan. For Pakistan to really make an impact, they would need an Imran Khan to lead them. Inzamam doesn’t quite fit the bill there.

Among the minnows, Zimbabwe has fallen below Bangladesh. What this means is matches involving Bangladesh may have better cricket than those involving Zimbabwe. May be true! Bermuda has very long shot at the cup and to be honest, I don’t know why we should even consider these teams! Well, here are the odds in any case: Bangladesh 200/1, Zimbabwe 250/1, Kenya 500/1, Scotland 500/1, Canada 1000/1, Holland 1000/1, Ireland 1000/1, Bermuda 2000/1.

These odds would have changed a bit by the time the Super Eight starts and there is little doubt that any of the minnows would be involved in those matches. For one, there are no games that are being forfeited and no walkovers to give free points to the minnows. As Ian Chappell rightly said, this is the most open World Cup in a long time (perhaps since 1992) where more than four teams have a real chance of winning.

It’s just that there’s a two-week wait after the start for the real action!