Sporting An Opinion

In all preceding World Cups, a captain’s good form has often an indicator of whether a team could win the tournament or not. In 1987, Allan Border led the way; in 1992, Imran Khan was at the forefront, in 1996, Arjuna Ranatunga was there right at the end while in 1999 Steve Waugh had a defining moment. In 2003, Ricky Ponting was the centurion in the final and in 2007, we had four captains, all in the semi-finals, in fine touch. One of them has now fallen (away) but the other three are still there to fight.

Of these three, one more shall fall today. Graeme Smith is young, brash and to a large extent, greatly talented. He has what it takes to play against Australia, but he may be missing what is needed to win against them. Ricky Ponting, on the other hand, is a captain who has never lost in the World Cup and he isn’t about to let that record go now! Aiming for his second straight final and a shot at becoming only the second captain ever to win two World Cups after Clive Lloyd (1975 and 1979), he is a man on a mission and in the best form he has been in for a long time. In fact, his form has not dipped over the last few years!

Facing off today, these two captains will rewrite history no matter what. An Australian loss could trigger a change in the world order of cricket, while a South African loss will get Australia closer to that third consecutive title. Like we said before, South Africa has the team, the players, but they suffer from no mental strength and conviction to proceed any further.

There will be a lot of players on both sides who may hang up their boots after their World Cup is over. For players like Shaun Pollock, Jacques Kallis, Herschelle Gibbs and Mark Boucher, there is also the ghost of 1999 to exorcise. Whether they are thinking about that or not (and they claim not to), it will be a tool Australia will use against them come game time. For some players like Adam Gilchrist who don’t know what it’s like not to win a World Cup, a loss could indeed be shattering. He has been in the Australian World Cup team since 1999, a loss in the tournament is unheard of. In fact, he has lost only two matches in three World Cups and while some may argue that it’s unfair and it will level out sooner or later, the fact is it may not happen this time.

There is a lot that is going for an Australian win at the moment and South Africa are the underdogs. They should make use of that situation and play naturally without undue pressure. Even if many believe that only South Africa could beat Australia, the cannot think of this once they are on the field. A good semi-final is promised again, but let’s hope it isn’t as one-sided as the first one.

After everything that has been said, done, won, lost, it all comes down to two good days. Forget the last month-and-a-half. Congratulations to the four semi-finalists. Now, do they have the stomach for two more outstanding performances?

And outstanding is what is required. New Zealand takes on Sri Lanka today and in a perfect match-up, Muttiah Muralitharan will be the biggest threat to New Zealand’s slightly spin-scared batsmen. For Sri Lanka, they need to watch out for the big man, Shane Bond.

The last two World Cups threw up some badly one-sided semi-finals and finals. Apart from the legendary Australia versus South Africa semi-final in 1999, there haven’t been too many good matches at this stage since almost 1996. But one gets the feeling that this time, there will be more fight in both the semi-finals and the final.

For one of the two teams today, it will be goodbye. But that will perhaps not be because they played badly. It could be more because they were overwhelmed by the occasion and could not handle the big match pressure. Sri Lanka and New Zealand have had relatively easy routes to the semi-final unlike South Africa who really had to fight it out. So if any team cannot handle the pressure, it could be one of these two.

Sri Lanka and New Zealand are perhaps the best-matched teams of the tournament. They both won five of their seven Super Eight matches; both lost a game to Australia (well, who didn’t?) and while Sri Lanka beat New Zealand in their match, that probably won’t count for much in the semi-final where the stakes are so much higher.

It is rather tough to pick out a winner from these two since both have a good batting and bowling line-up. But on the topic of who would want to chase, one has to think it’s Sri Lanka. They have a slightly better defined batting order and New Zealand would fancy their chances of restricting Sri Lanka to a manageable total. On the question of what is a manageable total, it’s tough to say.

The curator of the Sabina Park in Jamaica thinks the team winning the toss should bowl first which indicates the presence of moisture and assistance to bowlers early on. This could also mean that the target the team batting first sets won’t be in excess of 300. But as we have seen throughout the World Cup, the team batting first can get steamrolled in the second session if their total is not competitive.

Once again, we won’t hazard a guess about the winner. It’s come down to the final four and in five days, there may be a new World Champion. The battle begins today.

Two mentally fragile teams will fight a battle for survival today when England takes on South Africa. The numbers have been crunched, the permutations and combinations done and the requirements are clear: England must win to keep their semi-final hopes alive. South Africa needs to win to ensure a place in the semi-final. But as always, there is some fine print.

Should England win today, they would be equal with South Africa on points and have a chance of making a clean entry into the semis if they beat West Indies in their last Super Eight match. But should England win today and lost to the West Indies, it would come down to net run rate between the two teams and once again, Graeme Smith’s men could well lose out. Their run rate is already in the negative and another loss won’t help it at all. Unless England loses disastrously to the West Indies, they should go through. All this, of course hinges on the fact that they need to win today. A loss today will be goodbye for England!

Coming to the match, England seems to be the fitter of the two sides with South Africa unsure of Herschelle Gibbs’ availability. England has its team sorted out and now it’s a question of performing. Easier said than done, of course, but England needs to draw on their experience of beating Australia in the CB Series final to make an impact. Plus the mini-battle of Kevin Pietersen v South Africa would also spur him on to perform better. One cannot ignore the lack of form that Andrew Flintoff has been going through. He needs to come good today and along with Paul Collingwood would be called upon in the closing stages to up the run rate.

But a bigger worry for England would be the top order. It’s a crucial match and they cannot afford to be 40/3 after 15 overs. Even if they are 60 after 15 overs, they need to ensure it’s without loss. And to this effect, Michael Vaughan needs to open with Andrew Strauss and not Ian Bell. Pietersen could come in at number three to boost scoring and offer some variety to the batting and Bell could help stabilise the middle order.

South Africa is suspect to good bowling. It could be fast or spin… doesn’t matter. So long as there is accuracy and some penetration backed up by above average fielding, they are susceptible to shooting themselves in the foot. With the right amount of pressure and some consistently good bowling and fielding, England can make sure that the Proteas go into their own shell and never come back out! Their batting can collapse especially if Gibbs isn’t around. Justin Kemp who is as reliable as an umbrella in a tornado could well replace him! Robin Peterson, the South African answer to Monty Panesar, isn’t close enough to being as good as Monty but South Africa has some good quicks. Unfortunately, they all get predictable after a while. That is, if the batting team can hold their ground long enough.

It should be a good match but unfortunately, both teams are capable of playing defensively and making it a question of survival rather than an emphatic statement. Someone will choke for sure. Will it be Vaughan or will it be Smith?

The West Indies have to back themselves to score the 323 runs since the reserve day would now be used and they will also get similar conditions to bat in. The bowling may be better than their own but the real difference will be whether anyone can play a really big innings like Hayden did.

In the second Super Eight match, Sri Lanka plays South Africa and the South Africans would be desperate to win today since they have no points to their credit at the start of the Super Eight having lost to Australia in their last match. Sri Lanka, on the other hand are upbeat after their win over India and will be a tough team to beat. Picking a winner in this one would be rather tough, but one would have to say Sri Lanka thanks to the match winners like Muttiah Muralitharan, Chaminda Vaas and Sanath Jayasuriya in their ranks.

South Africa has played well, but the bowling is one-dimensional at best and if Ntini fails to take early wickets, there is a chance the opposition could just run away to a huge score like Australia did. And a batting line-up like Sri Lanka just needs to ensure there are no early wickets lost.

South Africa will seem favourites on paper, but the Sri Lankan juggernaut looks good enough to roll on all the way. Sangakkara may have missed out in the last match, but he is good enough to recover quickly.

For South Africa, it’s important that Gibbs and Kallis return to form as quickly as possible. Smith can’t continue to keep the batting going on his own for too long. Kallis has shown glimpses of what he can do but against the big boys, it will be even more important that he performs.

An exciting match on the cards as will all matches coming up. Let’s hope the weather can stay clear.

The first two weeks of the World Cup were expected to be an extended practice session but have instead thrown out two big names: India and Pakistan. And in their place come Bangladesh and Ireland who may not give the big six any trouble, but rather just the odd scare! So with the major six teams virtually guaranteed two wins in the Super Eight, it really comes down to who can hold their own against the rest! Let’s look at all the contenders (yes, all eight!).

Australia: Still the favourites and especially after their win over South Africa, their chances look better than ever. Can anyone beat them? New Zealand has shown the aptitude but that was at home. England beat Australia in Australia, but since then, they have had problems of their own. South Africa is expected to beat them and maybe on a bigger ground, could well do so. Sri Lanka is in good enough form to beat anyone, but against Australia, it’s more a question of confidence than skill. At the moment, a spot in the final looks assured! Team Australia

South Africa: They may not have lived up to their number one billing against Australia, but they are a good team, albeit predictable. They miss that one enigmatic performer, that outstanding talent who could make the difference… a Shane Bond, or an Andrew Symonds or even a Kevin Pietersen. Herschelle Gibbs is as close as they can get, but he delivers rather rarely these days. They are still strong enough to make the semi-final, though, but no further. Mental toughness is still lacking and the bowling looked fairly ragged against Australia. Team South Africa

Sri Lanka: The win over India would have given Sri Lanka a lot of confidence. For one, they eliminated one of the biggest teams and a team that had just beaten them convincingly. For another, they showed strength of character and a team spirit that is a must to win at such a tournament. Their batting looks great, bowling outstanding and fielding stupendous! Can they be stopped? Only by the devils in their mind! Team Sri Lanka

England: In some ways, they have a chance. But in all practicality, they don’t seem to have the drive that is needed. Recent events that showed a lack of team spirit have further dented confidence. Freddie Flintoff returned to take the English home against Kenya, but the bigger teams in the Super Eight will be a different proposition altogether. Semi-finalists? Really outside chance. Team England

New Zealand: They were in great form against Australia and also have the mental upper hand against them. Should the two meet in the final, many may just bet against Australia! Much of New Zealand’s strength lies in the number of utilitarian players they have. Jacob Oram, Scott Styris, Craig McMillan, Brendon McCullum… all do dual roles and as a result, the batting and bowling line-ups are long. They have a good chance to go all the way provided they don’t shoot themselves in the foot. Team New Zealand

West Indies: They haven’t looked good enough and the pressure of playing at home will get to them sooner or later. The troubles lie at the top of the order with Chris Gayle not coming into any sort of form. Chanderpaul played well against Ireland, but that can’t say much! Lara, Sarwan and Samuels have all done well in the past but they need to put together a string of good performances over 3 weeks to make it further. Doubt if they can do that. Team West Indies

Bangladesh: They have played well to make it thus far, but this where they will find themselves out of depth. One will be the pressure of consistent matches and the other of the opposition. Most teams will look at a Bangladesh match as a good chance to up their run rate and the Bangla boys may just suffer. Well done, but they will not go any further. Team Bangladesh

Ireland: A tie against Zimbabwe saw them through to the second round at the expense of Pakistan. Had Zimbabwe won on that day, Ireland could well have gone home and Pakistan, through. But a win over Pakistan deserves to be rewarded and a place in the second round is what they will have to show for it. Once again, they will be the whipping boys even for Bangladesh. A couple of good matches will do them no harm and they should be realistic about their chances. Team Ireland

To sum it up, Australia and Sri Lanka would be worthy finalists with Sri Lanka having a good chance to win the tournament on current form. New Zealand would be the third favourites while anyone else would be a big surprise!
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It’s the end of the road for Pakistan and cricket fans will certainly rue the fact that this enormously talented team could not stick around for the next stage of the tournament. For the moment, though, all attention is on the events surrounding the death of their coach Bob Woolmer. Latest reports suggest that there was evidence of foul play and strangulation and/or poisoning have been cited as one of the methods. The events, whatever they may turn out to be have once again brought to the fore the underbelly of cricket.

If we though the cricketing world had risen above the events of the match fixing imbroglio, Woolmer’s death may once again point to the strong connection between betting and international cricket. And rumours that it may have been the betting underworld that could have killed Woolmer makes this even more murkier.

Once again, off-field events have highlighted that no amount of measures are enough to keep all unwanted elements away from the game. And if Woolmer was killed because he was reportedly going to expose the betting syndicate involved, things start to look even more grim. For now, they even have access to the players and officials at such close quarters.

While off-field events may well be dominating the World Cup related headlines at the moment, the on-field action is heating up as well. Pakistan’s going home and as are most of the minnows. Ireland, though, will be around for another month battling it out with the big boys and another upset may not be entirely out of question. Bangladesh is the other minnow who is giving sleepless nights to the big boys, especially India and while this augurs well for the game, it’s something to think about for the broadcasters and other sponsors of the World Cup.

If India gets knocked out, there is more than just pride that is lost. Big monies are riding on the Indian team and everyone from the TV channels to the various sponsors of the team and the tournament stand to lose a lot. For the moment, though, India needs to focus on beating Sri Lanka and not worry about all the external factors.

Groups A and D are already decided with South Africa, Australia, West Indies and Ireland going through. Group B is in turmoil that is well documented! But it’s Group C that no one seems to be talking about. There is a possibility here that England may be knocked out and Kenya goes through. Sure England are a better team but they are currently in flux and unsure of their combination. Kenya has nothing to lose and an all-out performance by them could well see the English gasping to catch up. It’s an outside chance, but it’s possible! The two play on March 24 and it will definitely be interesting to watch how that pans out!

The final leg of the first round of matches promises much excitement and potential heartbreak for cricket fans. While some groups have already been decided, there are some key matches that would decide how the teams shape up in the next round.

Australia and South Africa are certain to progress from Group A with SA expected to confirm this by beating Scotland on Tuesday. And then there’s the biggest match of the first round between the two top-ranked ODI teams in the world. Yes, there will be two points up for grabs that the teams will take with them, but more than that is the psychological advantage because at the moment, these two teams look the most probable opponents in the final.

New Zealand versus Kenya seems like a straightforward match, but a Kenyan win could throw group C wide open. And then, England’s loss to NZ may not seem as big a deal! But NZ should win that one and barring and English loss to Kenya, NZ and England should be safely through to the Super Eight by March 24!

Group D is all done and dusted with hosts West Indies and Ireland going through. But the match between these two top teams of Group D will decide who starts the Super Eight with two points already in the bank. West Indies are favourites, but Ireland is a team on a high. Man to man, they may not match the Windies, but can just as easily cause another upset.

One group that is still unsettled is Group B with Sri Lanka, India and Bangladesh all having a chance of going through. In the most expected scenario, it will come down to the net run-rate and Bangladesh will then have the advantage of knowing exactly what they have to do to go through when they play Bermuda on March 25. That, interestingly, is the last of the group-stage matches and could well decide the fate of India and Sri Lanka!

Right from the start, this has been touted as one of the most “open” World Cups and how true it’s proving to be. Australia and South Africa apart, none of the big teams have shown the expected form and ruthlessness when playing the lesser teams. And the minnows have shown that they are not here to just make up the numbers. Their flair, charisma and sheer commitment has been a pleasure to watch. The next four days promises some outstanding cricket and even the lesser games will have a part to play in how the tournament shapes up.

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For all of us who wrote off the eight minnow teams, Saturday was a huge slap. Not only did Ireland and Bangladesh beat the big boys India and Pakistan, they have also vindicated the ICCs belief that the smaller teams need to play the bigger ones more for such results. Perhaps Indian and Pakistani fans may feel hard done but the two teams that beat them did play very well.
 
Bangladesh has promised a lot for a very long time and this could just be their year. Back in 1983, India was considered no better than Bangladesh is today when they went on to lift the Cup. Perhaps 2007’s Bangladesh is 1983’s India! And a win over Sri Lanka in their next match could well upset the balance of the entire group and further emphasise the progress they have made.
 
Ireland would have to be the biggest surprise of the tournament so far. Pakistan was expected to walk all over them but their bowling left the Pakistan batting in tatters. That Pakistan had been suffering from infighting didn’t help their cause either!
 
Bob Woolmer has apologized for Pakistan’s debacle but chose to blame the batting more than the Irish bowling. Inzamam has gone so far as to call this the worst day of his cricketing career. Perhaps it is a sentiment that Rahul Dravid would agree with as well. He was gracious in defeat, saying, “Credit to them. They came out and played some shots and their opener got them off to a very good start so that set them up well for the game,” but the task ahead is much tougher and now there is competition from Sri Lanka and Bangladesh to make it to the second round.
 
Saturday would perhaps be known as the day of the minnow with two major upsets. It would also be interesting to note how the interest levels in the subcontinent are affected now that there cannot be an India-Pakistan match in the World Cup. The two teams had faced off each time since 1992 and this year will break the rivalry! They have only themselves to blame, really!

South Africa does have a good reason to panic. And their histrionics on the pitch are only going to make things worse for them. They came to the Caribbean having just been ranked No. 1 in the world and beaten India and Pakistan convincingly in the preceding series. But the first warm-up game exposed some of the chinks in the batting when away from the comfort of home. Although SA did manage to win that game, there was no such respite in the second match. Pakistan was not going to make a meal of a target of 200 and they won by seven wickets. But that’s not important, is it?

It’s the SA attitude. They are starting to blame everything and everyone but themselves. In fact, they even went to the extent of stopping play to complain about the pitch. Well, they can’t do that once the tournament starts. They can’t continue to whine and cry like this. If it’s a bad pitch, it’s bad for both teams (mostly!). To make matter worse, the Pakistan batsmen handled the pitch rather well. So it’s safe to say that SA need to hit the panic button!

India, on the other hand, gave the West Indies quite a thrashing. Munaf Patel showed why he is so highly regarded with his measly figures of 4 for 10 in 6 overs. Irfan Patan got three wickets, but he never looked like the threatening Pathan who would curve the ball uncomfortably for batsmen. The only time he did show some control and skill was when he had Marlon Samuels leg before wicket. To be fair, he did fox Lara with a well-disguised slower one, but he still doesn’t look convincing. Virender Sehwag continued along his merry ways and one can’t help but feel that he thinks he won’t be dropped from the team. Ever. On current form, he should not be in the playing XI next week.

Australia was adequately dominating over England who has to think rather hard as to what exactly they were doing out there. From 2/112, they collapsed to 197 all out. The good news is Michael Vaughan is back in form and Ian Bell looks like he can bat again. The bad news is none of the others thought much of making the most of this opportunity and threw away their wickets. Shaun Tait did the damage for Australia picking up 4/33, but he still conceded far too many in the context of the game. Australia’s final margin of victory was five wickets, but it should have been much bigger. Another irresponsible batting display from the middle order cost them valuable practice before the big match.

Sri Lanka must be wondering what in god’s name has gone wrong with their team. Sure they lost by just 18 runs and Upul Tharanga scored a fine 106, but the bowling conceded far too many to a team that had just been beaten by Bangladesh! Sri Lanka has serious problems in the batting department too especially with captain Mahela Jayawardene. Maybe he should drop himself down the order… and though Sanath Jayasuriya was missing, Sri Lanka did not look like a side that could have won.

The practice matches are now out of the way and the real action starts in just three days. South Africa, New Zealand, Sri Lanka and the West Indies would be in turmoil. Not sure if England cares; after all, this is not the Ashes! Australia, India and Pakistan look the most sorted and settled of all the teams… is there a title winner in the three?

There is growing uneasiness among all teams gathered in the Caribbean and understandably so. The World Cup officially kicks off next week, but for two weeks after that, there’s just one key match per team. For the fans, there are just four important matches. Here are the dates to remember and the matches that will be worth following in round 1:

March 13: West Indies v Pakistan (Jamaica)
March 16: England v New Zealand (St. Lucia)
March 23: India v Sri Lanka (Trinidad)
March 24: Australia v South Africa (St. Kitts)

Of all these teams, Pakistan would consider themselves unluckiest. They start their campaign with the most important match in the first round and they stand to lose momentum by the time they play next in the Super Eight stage. Their chances of winning are also not the best with the West Indies enjoying the home advantage and having had a better time of it lately. In the 12 days or so between their first match and the first Super Eight match (assuming they finish second in Group D), the will play Zimbabwe and Ireland. Bob Woolmer has a task on his hands.

For the betting inclined, here are the current odds as published by Ladbrokes: Australia 9/4, South Africa 4/1, Sri Lanka 7/1, West Indies 7/1, England 8/1, India 8/1, New Zealand 8/1, Pakistan 12/1. Australia is obvious favourites despite their recent form. South Africa is a close second, Sri Lanka and West Indies third followed by England, India and New Zealand and finally, Pakistan. For Pakistan to really make an impact, they would need an Imran Khan to lead them. Inzamam doesn’t quite fit the bill there.

Among the minnows, Zimbabwe has fallen below Bangladesh. What this means is matches involving Bangladesh may have better cricket than those involving Zimbabwe. May be true! Bermuda has very long shot at the cup and to be honest, I don’t know why we should even consider these teams! Well, here are the odds in any case: Bangladesh 200/1, Zimbabwe 250/1, Kenya 500/1, Scotland 500/1, Canada 1000/1, Holland 1000/1, Ireland 1000/1, Bermuda 2000/1.

These odds would have changed a bit by the time the Super Eight starts and there is little doubt that any of the minnows would be involved in those matches. For one, there are no games that are being forfeited and no walkovers to give free points to the minnows. As Ian Chappell rightly said, this is the most open World Cup in a long time (perhaps since 1992) where more than four teams have a real chance of winning.

It’s just that there’s a two-week wait after the start for the real action!