Sporting An Opinion

In all preceding World Cups, a captain’s good form has often an indicator of whether a team could win the tournament or not. In 1987, Allan Border led the way; in 1992, Imran Khan was at the forefront, in 1996, Arjuna Ranatunga was there right at the end while in 1999 Steve Waugh had a defining moment. In 2003, Ricky Ponting was the centurion in the final and in 2007, we had four captains, all in the semi-finals, in fine touch. One of them has now fallen (away) but the other three are still there to fight.

Of these three, one more shall fall today. Graeme Smith is young, brash and to a large extent, greatly talented. He has what it takes to play against Australia, but he may be missing what is needed to win against them. Ricky Ponting, on the other hand, is a captain who has never lost in the World Cup and he isn’t about to let that record go now! Aiming for his second straight final and a shot at becoming only the second captain ever to win two World Cups after Clive Lloyd (1975 and 1979), he is a man on a mission and in the best form he has been in for a long time. In fact, his form has not dipped over the last few years!

Facing off today, these two captains will rewrite history no matter what. An Australian loss could trigger a change in the world order of cricket, while a South African loss will get Australia closer to that third consecutive title. Like we said before, South Africa has the team, the players, but they suffer from no mental strength and conviction to proceed any further.

There will be a lot of players on both sides who may hang up their boots after their World Cup is over. For players like Shaun Pollock, Jacques Kallis, Herschelle Gibbs and Mark Boucher, there is also the ghost of 1999 to exorcise. Whether they are thinking about that or not (and they claim not to), it will be a tool Australia will use against them come game time. For some players like Adam Gilchrist who don’t know what it’s like not to win a World Cup, a loss could indeed be shattering. He has been in the Australian World Cup team since 1999, a loss in the tournament is unheard of. In fact, he has lost only two matches in three World Cups and while some may argue that it’s unfair and it will level out sooner or later, the fact is it may not happen this time.

There is a lot that is going for an Australian win at the moment and South Africa are the underdogs. They should make use of that situation and play naturally without undue pressure. Even if many believe that only South Africa could beat Australia, the cannot think of this once they are on the field. A good semi-final is promised again, but let’s hope it isn’t as one-sided as the first one.

After everything that has been said, done, won, lost, it all comes down to two good days. Forget the last month-and-a-half. Congratulations to the four semi-finalists. Now, do they have the stomach for two more outstanding performances?

And outstanding is what is required. New Zealand takes on Sri Lanka today and in a perfect match-up, Muttiah Muralitharan will be the biggest threat to New Zealand’s slightly spin-scared batsmen. For Sri Lanka, they need to watch out for the big man, Shane Bond.

The last two World Cups threw up some badly one-sided semi-finals and finals. Apart from the legendary Australia versus South Africa semi-final in 1999, there haven’t been too many good matches at this stage since almost 1996. But one gets the feeling that this time, there will be more fight in both the semi-finals and the final.

For one of the two teams today, it will be goodbye. But that will perhaps not be because they played badly. It could be more because they were overwhelmed by the occasion and could not handle the big match pressure. Sri Lanka and New Zealand have had relatively easy routes to the semi-final unlike South Africa who really had to fight it out. So if any team cannot handle the pressure, it could be one of these two.

Sri Lanka and New Zealand are perhaps the best-matched teams of the tournament. They both won five of their seven Super Eight matches; both lost a game to Australia (well, who didn’t?) and while Sri Lanka beat New Zealand in their match, that probably won’t count for much in the semi-final where the stakes are so much higher.

It is rather tough to pick out a winner from these two since both have a good batting and bowling line-up. But on the topic of who would want to chase, one has to think it’s Sri Lanka. They have a slightly better defined batting order and New Zealand would fancy their chances of restricting Sri Lanka to a manageable total. On the question of what is a manageable total, it’s tough to say.

The curator of the Sabina Park in Jamaica thinks the team winning the toss should bowl first which indicates the presence of moisture and assistance to bowlers early on. This could also mean that the target the team batting first sets won’t be in excess of 300. But as we have seen throughout the World Cup, the team batting first can get steamrolled in the second session if their total is not competitive.

Once again, we won’t hazard a guess about the winner. It’s come down to the final four and in five days, there may be a new World Champion. The battle begins today.

Australia and New Zealand are perhaps the two best teams in the tournament at the moment. Sri Lanka hurt themselves when they lost so badly to Australia. And they are not entirely out of the clutches of the Aussies just yet. New Zealand plays the world champs today and if they win well enough to have a better net run rate than the Australians, they could well top the group and leave Sri Lanka to face Australia in the semis.

Australia is not known to be afraid of any team, but in a stage like the semi-final, one bad day is all they need to be knocked out. And they may want to especially avoid the South Africans. For today’s match, though, New Zealand will do well not to lose badly. Not to sound defeatist, but the Australians are looking far too strong for absolutely anyone and despite the recent control the Kiwis have over the Aussies, it will take much more to beat the Australians in the World Cup; it’s not been done since 1999!

New Zealand has had a slightly tough time up the batting order and would do well to sort out that issue asap! Scott Styris, their best batsman, also would like to have some more runs on the board when he comes in to bat and even if these runs are not scored at a lightning rate, it would be important that New Zealand preserve wickets for an assault later.

As for the Kiwi bowling, they would do well to pick up some early wickets. Especially Hayden and/or Gilchrist. Even if one of them gets away, it can be fatal! The game would be very interesting since neither team would want to give away too much in terms of strategy or weakness! It will be a bit of a game of poker in addition to the cricket and since both teams will play at full strength, the mind games would be really interesting.

Ponting versus Fleming; the two best tacticians in the game will be at full tilt. And the last time New Zealand beat Australia, Ponting wasn’t there. So there’s another score to be settled.

It is possible that Australia doesn’t finish the Super Eight on top. Of course, at the moment it is a theoretical possibility. But if anyone can beat Australia, it is one of their next two opponents Sri Lanka or New Zealand. And Australia would be well aware of this fact. Sri Lanka has played some outstanding cricket so far barring the one loss to South Africa and they have the bowling firepower and variety to take the fight to Australia.

Australia has also played high-class cricket but they have not been tested so far. Their top order has sure fired with Adam Gilchrist and Matthew Hayden in good form and Ricky Ponting is always a real threat. But thereafter, it does look a little slim. Missing are stalwarts like Damien Martyn and Michael Bevan or even Ian Harvey. Michael Clarke is reliable but can be put under pressure and Mike Hussey has struggled all through the tournament. Andrew Symonds is just returning from injury and has not looked good enough against quality bowling. Brad Hodge, one would think, is a good player to have in the side and he was in very good form too when he was dropped for Symonds. Bringing him in over Hussey or Symonds could strengthen the middle order for Australia.

This weak middle order is exactly what Sri Lanka will target with their variety of bowlers! To get to the middle order of course, they need to knock over the top two first and they will hope Chaminda Vaas continues his habit of a wicket in the opening spell. Lasith Malinga is a doubtful starter but even without him, they have enough quick bowlers to trouble the best of batting line-ups. And then there’s Murali.

Another aspect the Aussies would have to watch out for is superior Sri Lankan fielding. So far, they have only played South Africa with fielding that is comparable but now, they are up against a really world class outfit that can match them man to man. Australia would also have to worry about inexperience in the bowling. Shaun Tait is someone who could well be taken apart by the likes of Jayasuriya, Sangakkara and the ‘now back in form’ Mahela Jayawardene.

The Grenada pitch does offer some bounce and movement early on and neither team would be too keen to bat first. Let’s hope the toss doesn’t decide the winner.

After a crushing defeat at the hands of Sri Lanka, New Zealand needs to bounce back quickly to remain in the running for a semi-final berth. Things have not yet become tough for the Kiwis, but their next match is against a resurgent South Africa and it’s not expected to be an easy outing. Stephen Fleming would be worried about the performance of his top order against the Lankans but he will hope to bat second against South Africa considering a battery of pacemen.

For South Africa, team selection will be a bit of an issue with Andre Nel showing form in his last match. But a one-dimensional attack against New Zealand could be trouble and they will want Peterson to play a big part. Graeme Smith was tonked around a bit against the West Indies but that was at the fag end of the match. He will still be looking for consistency and some penetration from his bowlers.

Smith has gone on record to say that he won’t want to worry about net run rate and would prefer to go through with an outright win record, but it’s perhaps not the smartest thing to do. While Smith can ensure his team does their best, he can’t guarantee what happens in other matches. On that front, Stephen Fleming seems to have his plans correct. He is worrying about the net run rate and if not for qualification, it could help ensure they don’t bump into Australia in the semis itself!

The key players for New Zealand would obviously be Scott Styris and Shane Bond while for South Africa, it would be Jacques Kallis and Shaun Pollock. Similar styles for all opposing numbers and the match does seem like an equal contest on paper. It would finally come down to the planning, pitch and nerves. Who will hold out better?

New Zealand needs this win to ensure they go through while South Africa needs it to keep England away and not make their game against England a playoff. At the moment, it’s just too close to call but one would have to say South Africa; they just seem more aggressive than the Kiwis despite having lost to Bangladesh.

Stephen Fleming must be thinking when he will catch his lucky break. If the bowlers are the usual suspects for injuries, this time, it’s his batsmen that have let him down! But not without some help from the bowlers. Shane Bond broke Lou Vincent’s hand and Ross Taylor’s hamstring has been pulled. Vincent must be an especially bitter loss after he had fought his way back into form with a century.

Despite that, however, New Zealand has a decent enough side to challenge the West Indies on their home turf. That the Windies would be playing for the third day running won’t help the home team, but New Zealand are not complaining! With two guaranteed wins against Ireland and Bangladesh up for grabs, they just need to ensure they win a game against West Indies and maybe their bunny team Australia! The semi-final spot is theirs for the taking!

The West Indies need a bolt of lightning from the blue to lift their chances. They were fairly lucky to make it to this stage with two points but still need to win a few to make it further. Their lacklustre performances so far are hardly confidence-arousing and could well continue if Lara spends more time commenting on the crowd support rather than focusing on what ails his players. And what ails them is completely mental.

If playing at home cannot ensure them wins, the Windies really don’t deserve to go any further. Winning a tournament at home has always been tough but getting to the semis has been easier (England and South Africa being the exceptions!).

Over-simplifying the West Indies problems, all they need to do is field better, bowl better and bat better. Of course, everyone knows that but it’s still not happening, is it? The batsmen seem to dislike the sun for they are always in a hurry to return to the comfort of the dressing room.

Jokes apart, though, if the Windies can beat the New Zealanders today, it would be just the shot the Super Eights needs. Else, the semi-finalists may just be decided before the last few games are played.

The first two weeks of the World Cup were expected to be an extended practice session but have instead thrown out two big names: India and Pakistan. And in their place come Bangladesh and Ireland who may not give the big six any trouble, but rather just the odd scare! So with the major six teams virtually guaranteed two wins in the Super Eight, it really comes down to who can hold their own against the rest! Let’s look at all the contenders (yes, all eight!).

Australia: Still the favourites and especially after their win over South Africa, their chances look better than ever. Can anyone beat them? New Zealand has shown the aptitude but that was at home. England beat Australia in Australia, but since then, they have had problems of their own. South Africa is expected to beat them and maybe on a bigger ground, could well do so. Sri Lanka is in good enough form to beat anyone, but against Australia, it’s more a question of confidence than skill. At the moment, a spot in the final looks assured! Team Australia

South Africa: They may not have lived up to their number one billing against Australia, but they are a good team, albeit predictable. They miss that one enigmatic performer, that outstanding talent who could make the difference… a Shane Bond, or an Andrew Symonds or even a Kevin Pietersen. Herschelle Gibbs is as close as they can get, but he delivers rather rarely these days. They are still strong enough to make the semi-final, though, but no further. Mental toughness is still lacking and the bowling looked fairly ragged against Australia. Team South Africa

Sri Lanka: The win over India would have given Sri Lanka a lot of confidence. For one, they eliminated one of the biggest teams and a team that had just beaten them convincingly. For another, they showed strength of character and a team spirit that is a must to win at such a tournament. Their batting looks great, bowling outstanding and fielding stupendous! Can they be stopped? Only by the devils in their mind! Team Sri Lanka

England: In some ways, they have a chance. But in all practicality, they don’t seem to have the drive that is needed. Recent events that showed a lack of team spirit have further dented confidence. Freddie Flintoff returned to take the English home against Kenya, but the bigger teams in the Super Eight will be a different proposition altogether. Semi-finalists? Really outside chance. Team England

New Zealand: They were in great form against Australia and also have the mental upper hand against them. Should the two meet in the final, many may just bet against Australia! Much of New Zealand’s strength lies in the number of utilitarian players they have. Jacob Oram, Scott Styris, Craig McMillan, Brendon McCullum… all do dual roles and as a result, the batting and bowling line-ups are long. They have a good chance to go all the way provided they don’t shoot themselves in the foot. Team New Zealand

West Indies: They haven’t looked good enough and the pressure of playing at home will get to them sooner or later. The troubles lie at the top of the order with Chris Gayle not coming into any sort of form. Chanderpaul played well against Ireland, but that can’t say much! Lara, Sarwan and Samuels have all done well in the past but they need to put together a string of good performances over 3 weeks to make it further. Doubt if they can do that. Team West Indies

Bangladesh: They have played well to make it thus far, but this where they will find themselves out of depth. One will be the pressure of consistent matches and the other of the opposition. Most teams will look at a Bangladesh match as a good chance to up their run rate and the Bangla boys may just suffer. Well done, but they will not go any further. Team Bangladesh

Ireland: A tie against Zimbabwe saw them through to the second round at the expense of Pakistan. Had Zimbabwe won on that day, Ireland could well have gone home and Pakistan, through. But a win over Pakistan deserves to be rewarded and a place in the second round is what they will have to show for it. Once again, they will be the whipping boys even for Bangladesh. A couple of good matches will do them no harm and they should be realistic about their chances. Team Ireland

To sum it up, Australia and Sri Lanka would be worthy finalists with Sri Lanka having a good chance to win the tournament on current form. New Zealand would be the third favourites while anyone else would be a big surprise!
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The upsets have started. But as Stephen Fleming put it, they were lucky this wasn’t a group stage match. Bangladesh, though, would be overjoyed with their performance and despite it being in a game that doesn’t count they would not think any less of it.
 
Mashrafe Mortaza and Abdur Razzaq stunned New Zealand and it was thanks to Jacob Oram’s 88 (still with all fingers intact), that they managed to post a somewhat respectable 226. But a good start and Mashrafe Mortaza’s fine 30 with the bat saw the Bangladeshis overhaul the New Zealand total and throw their preparation into turmoil. Coming on the back of a 3-0 win over Australia, New Zealand promised much and perhaps this is a timely wake-up call that nothing can be taken for granted.
 
Elsewhere, India was adequate as they beat the Netherlands by a substantial 182 runs, Australia was strong enough to defend 290 and win by 106 runs against Zimbabwe while Pakistan got their act together to win by 77 runs against Canada.
 
The Australians could not have been entirely happy with their preparation for a score of 300-plus was expected of them against Zimbabwe. To add to their woes, Bracken and McGrath (who had identical figures of 5-2-8-1) have proved beyond doubt that they are the containing bowlers and perhaps not the wicket-taking ones. And Shaun Tait continues to struggle for wickets.
 
India’s batting looked dodgy, to be honest, and it was a rejuvenated Dravid and the reliable (at World Cups!) Tendulkar who got them to safety. Irfan Pathan looked like he wants to perform badly, but he just didn’t look penetrating enough with the ball and against better batting line-ups, he will be taken to the cleaners. Pathan bowled around 122kmph (average) and barely swung the ball to trouble the batsmen. If this continues, his pace is ideal for the top batsmen in the world to take him apart. But there may still be some value in having him in the team instead of Dinesh Kaarthick because their batting abilities seem matched. Irfan could bowl an over or two if absolutely necessary!
 
Pakistan continues to struggle with its opening pair with bat and ball! Inzamam’s 59 would have allowed the team a sigh of relief for he is their most experienced and best batsman. Mohammed Hafeez, though, shone brightly as he picked up 3/10 after having topscored with 61. But letting a team like Canada get to almost 200 and within 77 runs of their target would have raised a few questions. There’s time, though, to sort it out before the opening match against hosts West Indies on March 13.
 
In all the matches so far, the pitches have not looked “Word Cup standard” and have offered a lot of assistance to the bowlers, especially the spin variety. In India’s match against the Netherlands, the pitch looked like it was broken and the amount of seam movement that S Sreesanth got was prodigious to say the least.
 
The initial matches are good signal to most teams for reconsidering their combinations and resetting targets when batting first. On the small evidence of the first two days of matches, the bowlers will perhaps enjoy this World Cup and the team whose batsmen bat more responsibly might be the one to go all the way.