Sporting An Opinion

Had things gone according to plan in the group stages, Sunday, April 15 would have seen India take on Pakistan in the World Cup. As it turns out, it is going to be Ireland versus Bangladesh! Not to belittle the teams, but the fact is that with India and Pakistan both missing out on the second stage, a lot of the sheen has been taken off the tournament.

In most respects, this seems like a match up of equals, but Bangladesh would have the upper hand having beaten India and South Africa. Ireland did beat Pakistan, but in the Super Eight, they have been thrashed by most teams.

Bangladesh will not finish at the bottom of the table and would like to make sure there are no loopholes in that by beating Ireland. They still have a match left against the West Indies, but no one expects them to win that. Nonetheless, while Sunday’s match won’t exactly be the most exciting of all, it could put up some good cricket.

The real matches of difference, though, are on Monday and Tuesday. Australia takes on Sri Lanka and South Africa faces England. The South Africa-England match is a playoff now with New Zealand beating the Proteas on Saturday but Australia v Sri Lanka is for the top spot in the final standings.

Australia is way ahead on their net run rate and Sri Lanka could well yet take the top spot with two wins; their last match is against Ireland! Australia, on the other hand, could lose both their next matches (against Sri Lanka and New Zealand and well find themselves in second or even third place. But the question is who from New Zealand and Sri Lanka are desperate enough to avoid Australia in the semi-final? A better question, perhaps, would be does it matter?

In the knock out stage (which is really just the semi-final), one bad day and Australia could be out. And most teams making it to that stage would be giving it their all so the possibility cannot be ruled out. For the moment, the semi-final line-up looks to point to Sri Lanka versus New Zealand and Australia versus South Africa (we assume England won’t be able to beat South Africa).

England versus Ireland may enthuse supporters of Rugby or even football, but in cricket, on paper anyway, it seems like a huge mismatch. England the powerhouse; Ireland the minnows who are lucky to be here…

Had things in the first round gone somewhat to plan, it would have been Pakistan playing England instead of Ireland. And England may well be relieved about not having to play the Asian powerhouse. But they cannot take the game lightly. They have made the Super Eight without any points having lost to New Zealand and need to beat South Africa, West Indies, Sri Lanka or Australia. Not easy and they would do well to take two points and up their run rate as much as possible against Ireland and Bangladesh.

For Ireland, this has been an incredible ride. A win over Pakistan and a tie against Zimbabwe means that they have truly earned their place. But they would also do well to ‘know’ their place. Without trying to be demeaning, Ireland are the whipping boys for the six big teams. By that, they should not roll over and play dead and an upset today could well mean goodbye for England. But a repeat of their performance against Pakistan may not be that easy to do.

England’s main problems lie in their batting. So far, only Collingwood and Pietersen have shown any signs of having adapted to the conditions and pressures of the tournament. They need Flintoff and one of the top three (Vaughan, Joyce and Bell) to score consistently and at least bat around Pietersen and Collingwood to ensure that they put up competitive scores.

On the bowling front, things have been marginally better, but once again, there is too much pressure on a couple of guys. Flintoff is almost expected to pick a wicket with every ball as is Monty Panesar. Liam Plunkett has shown glimpses of what he can do but others including Jimmy Anderson need to put up their hand and fast. What are they chances England is missing Steve Harmison?

It’s not a must win game for England from a survival point of view, but it’s a must win game from an advancement point of view. The difference is subtle and England needs to appreciate that quickly. A loss will not knock them out and a win won’t get them through. But one result will push them closer to elimination while the other, closer to qualification for the semi-final.

The first two weeks of the World Cup were expected to be an extended practice session but have instead thrown out two big names: India and Pakistan. And in their place come Bangladesh and Ireland who may not give the big six any trouble, but rather just the odd scare! So with the major six teams virtually guaranteed two wins in the Super Eight, it really comes down to who can hold their own against the rest! Let’s look at all the contenders (yes, all eight!).

Australia: Still the favourites and especially after their win over South Africa, their chances look better than ever. Can anyone beat them? New Zealand has shown the aptitude but that was at home. England beat Australia in Australia, but since then, they have had problems of their own. South Africa is expected to beat them and maybe on a bigger ground, could well do so. Sri Lanka is in good enough form to beat anyone, but against Australia, it’s more a question of confidence than skill. At the moment, a spot in the final looks assured! Team Australia

South Africa: They may not have lived up to their number one billing against Australia, but they are a good team, albeit predictable. They miss that one enigmatic performer, that outstanding talent who could make the difference… a Shane Bond, or an Andrew Symonds or even a Kevin Pietersen. Herschelle Gibbs is as close as they can get, but he delivers rather rarely these days. They are still strong enough to make the semi-final, though, but no further. Mental toughness is still lacking and the bowling looked fairly ragged against Australia. Team South Africa

Sri Lanka: The win over India would have given Sri Lanka a lot of confidence. For one, they eliminated one of the biggest teams and a team that had just beaten them convincingly. For another, they showed strength of character and a team spirit that is a must to win at such a tournament. Their batting looks great, bowling outstanding and fielding stupendous! Can they be stopped? Only by the devils in their mind! Team Sri Lanka

England: In some ways, they have a chance. But in all practicality, they don’t seem to have the drive that is needed. Recent events that showed a lack of team spirit have further dented confidence. Freddie Flintoff returned to take the English home against Kenya, but the bigger teams in the Super Eight will be a different proposition altogether. Semi-finalists? Really outside chance. Team England

New Zealand: They were in great form against Australia and also have the mental upper hand against them. Should the two meet in the final, many may just bet against Australia! Much of New Zealand’s strength lies in the number of utilitarian players they have. Jacob Oram, Scott Styris, Craig McMillan, Brendon McCullum… all do dual roles and as a result, the batting and bowling line-ups are long. They have a good chance to go all the way provided they don’t shoot themselves in the foot. Team New Zealand

West Indies: They haven’t looked good enough and the pressure of playing at home will get to them sooner or later. The troubles lie at the top of the order with Chris Gayle not coming into any sort of form. Chanderpaul played well against Ireland, but that can’t say much! Lara, Sarwan and Samuels have all done well in the past but they need to put together a string of good performances over 3 weeks to make it further. Doubt if they can do that. Team West Indies

Bangladesh: They have played well to make it thus far, but this where they will find themselves out of depth. One will be the pressure of consistent matches and the other of the opposition. Most teams will look at a Bangladesh match as a good chance to up their run rate and the Bangla boys may just suffer. Well done, but they will not go any further. Team Bangladesh

Ireland: A tie against Zimbabwe saw them through to the second round at the expense of Pakistan. Had Zimbabwe won on that day, Ireland could well have gone home and Pakistan, through. But a win over Pakistan deserves to be rewarded and a place in the second round is what they will have to show for it. Once again, they will be the whipping boys even for Bangladesh. A couple of good matches will do them no harm and they should be realistic about their chances. Team Ireland

To sum it up, Australia and Sri Lanka would be worthy finalists with Sri Lanka having a good chance to win the tournament on current form. New Zealand would be the third favourites while anyone else would be a big surprise!
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Michael Holding has been a little harsh on the lesser teams of the World Cup. Now do we mean harsh or honest? There are 16 teams in all in this tournament, of which Bangladesh, Bermuda, Canada, Ireland, Kenya, Netherlands, Scotland and even Zimbabwe will be at their best when facing another team from this bunch. When they come up against one of the big boys, they will wither. No doubts. Having said that, Kenya did beat the West Indies in 1996, Bangladesh beat Pakistan in 1999 and Kenya made the semi-finals in 2003.

From a purist angle, one may argue that only the Kenya win over West Indies in 1996 was in a match of consequence. Bangladesh beat Pakistan when they had already qualified for the next round in Kenya made the semis only because some teams refused to play all their matches and the rules of the World Cup are a little messed up.

Coming back to what Holding was saying, though, it really is a tough job for the ICC to handle the ‘minnows’, make sure they improve and one day, come to the same level as the major countries. And in true chicken-and-egg style, they won’t get better until they play with the big boys and the big boys won’t play them till they are better. So we have a situation! Not so much a situation, really, but an inconvenient occasion like when the host says something bad to a guest at dinner! The guest has the option of retorting or getting up and leaving.

Holding’s remarks were made as a speaker and he does represent the host country. These remarks have obviously hurt the associates (I know, minnows is not the politically correct term!) but there is some truth in what he says. The minnows do devalue the tournament. They don’t bring any more excitement. Their game is not as developed to play with the best and call us a bully, but we think they need to play some more with boys their age before coming to play with the big boys!

The ICC’s qualifier tournament has thrown up these many countries and perhaps it is time to re-look at the format of the World Cup. Spread over two months, the event begins on March 13 but to be honest, the real action starts only from March 27 when the Super Eight begins. The ‘Super Eight’ term is an elitist connotation and it was the ICC who came up with that! One senses a bit of conflict of ideology here!

Let’s face it. The teams that will make it to the Super Eight will not include Bangladesh, Bermuda, Canada, Ireland, Kenya, Netherlands, Scotland or Zimbabwe. These teams will offer extended warm-up matches for the major teams (ok, I will refrain from using “Big Boys”). What will they have learned? Apart from exposure, they would have gained nothing.

The ICC seriously should reconsider the format and maybe have a qualifier from among the top 8 associates to bring through only two. Hang on… isn’t that what happened in 1996? Maybe it’s time to turn back the clock.