Sporting An Opinion

The final leg of the first round of matches promises much excitement and potential heartbreak for cricket fans. While some groups have already been decided, there are some key matches that would decide how the teams shape up in the next round.

Australia and South Africa are certain to progress from Group A with SA expected to confirm this by beating Scotland on Tuesday. And then there’s the biggest match of the first round between the two top-ranked ODI teams in the world. Yes, there will be two points up for grabs that the teams will take with them, but more than that is the psychological advantage because at the moment, these two teams look the most probable opponents in the final.

New Zealand versus Kenya seems like a straightforward match, but a Kenyan win could throw group C wide open. And then, England’s loss to NZ may not seem as big a deal! But NZ should win that one and barring and English loss to Kenya, NZ and England should be safely through to the Super Eight by March 24!

Group D is all done and dusted with hosts West Indies and Ireland going through. But the match between these two top teams of Group D will decide who starts the Super Eight with two points already in the bank. West Indies are favourites, but Ireland is a team on a high. Man to man, they may not match the Windies, but can just as easily cause another upset.

One group that is still unsettled is Group B with Sri Lanka, India and Bangladesh all having a chance of going through. In the most expected scenario, it will come down to the net run-rate and Bangladesh will then have the advantage of knowing exactly what they have to do to go through when they play Bermuda on March 25. That, interestingly, is the last of the group-stage matches and could well decide the fate of India and Sri Lanka!

Right from the start, this has been touted as one of the most “open” World Cups and how true it’s proving to be. Australia and South Africa apart, none of the big teams have shown the expected form and ruthlessness when playing the lesser teams. And the minnows have shown that they are not here to just make up the numbers. Their flair, charisma and sheer commitment has been a pleasure to watch. The next four days promises some outstanding cricket and even the lesser games will have a part to play in how the tournament shapes up.

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Australia has made a rousing start to their title defense with the annihilation of Scotland and confirmed to the world that they are indeed serious contenders for the title.
 
All their hiccups against New Zealand seemed like they were sorted as Gilchrist and Hayden got them off to an outstanding start and the came Ricky Ponting who scored his 23rd ODI hundred and propelled the Aussies to a competitive total. Ponting’s innings, in fact, has raised questions whether he really is the best batsman in the world. And despite his statement that it is Tendulkar, neutral followers would be inclined to think otherwise.
 
Glenn McGrath was the other highlight for Australia with his usual accuracy and he also managed to surprise the Scottish batsmen with his pace and bounce. But the fact is that he is the strike bowler for Australia and no one else. Certainly not Shaun Tait who sprayed the ball all over the place and in general looked like a rabbit caught in the headlinghts!
 
Contrary to belief, Scotland wasn’t all that bad. Although they were bowled out for 13-odd, they showed some fight. And had it not been for the last three overs in the Australian innings that cost over 50 runs, Australia could well have been held to a score of under 300. But that’s experience!
 
For Australia, there is the one small problem, though: the middle order. Clarke, Hussey and Watson didn’t look very confident and it was Brad Hogg who hit out in the last few overs. But there is enough time before their match against South Africa to correct this. Bottom line for the main teams: don’t write Australia off!
 
Kenya and Canada was the other match and after an initial hiccup, Kenya showed their greater experience and rallied through to trounce Canada by seven wickets. Steven Tikolo (72) and Maurice Ouma (58) were the main men as they ensured Kenya did not suffer a collapse!

There is growing uneasiness among all teams gathered in the Caribbean and understandably so. The World Cup officially kicks off next week, but for two weeks after that, there’s just one key match per team. For the fans, there are just four important matches. Here are the dates to remember and the matches that will be worth following in round 1:

March 13: West Indies v Pakistan (Jamaica)
March 16: England v New Zealand (St. Lucia)
March 23: India v Sri Lanka (Trinidad)
March 24: Australia v South Africa (St. Kitts)

Of all these teams, Pakistan would consider themselves unluckiest. They start their campaign with the most important match in the first round and they stand to lose momentum by the time they play next in the Super Eight stage. Their chances of winning are also not the best with the West Indies enjoying the home advantage and having had a better time of it lately. In the 12 days or so between their first match and the first Super Eight match (assuming they finish second in Group D), the will play Zimbabwe and Ireland. Bob Woolmer has a task on his hands.

For the betting inclined, here are the current odds as published by Ladbrokes: Australia 9/4, South Africa 4/1, Sri Lanka 7/1, West Indies 7/1, England 8/1, India 8/1, New Zealand 8/1, Pakistan 12/1. Australia is obvious favourites despite their recent form. South Africa is a close second, Sri Lanka and West Indies third followed by England, India and New Zealand and finally, Pakistan. For Pakistan to really make an impact, they would need an Imran Khan to lead them. Inzamam doesn’t quite fit the bill there.

Among the minnows, Zimbabwe has fallen below Bangladesh. What this means is matches involving Bangladesh may have better cricket than those involving Zimbabwe. May be true! Bermuda has very long shot at the cup and to be honest, I don’t know why we should even consider these teams! Well, here are the odds in any case: Bangladesh 200/1, Zimbabwe 250/1, Kenya 500/1, Scotland 500/1, Canada 1000/1, Holland 1000/1, Ireland 1000/1, Bermuda 2000/1.

These odds would have changed a bit by the time the Super Eight starts and there is little doubt that any of the minnows would be involved in those matches. For one, there are no games that are being forfeited and no walkovers to give free points to the minnows. As Ian Chappell rightly said, this is the most open World Cup in a long time (perhaps since 1992) where more than four teams have a real chance of winning.

It’s just that there’s a two-week wait after the start for the real action!

It’s quite baffling to note how many teams have picked players that are unfit or doubtful for whatever reasons to make it to the World Cup. And now, all these players are being given warnings and small time periods to prove their fitness or match-worthiness. The strangest selection of this has to be Irfan Pathan.

He was sent back from South Africa because he was woefully out of form and he needed to spend some time in domestic cricket. Then he got injured. And he carried his injury through the Sri Lanka series. Now the Indian team was announced before the last match against Sri Lanka and Pathan had neither proved his fitness nor his return to form. Yet he was picked for the squad going to the Caribbean. This doesn’t say much about the selection process to be honest!

Why would you pick a player who is still out of form (until proven otherwise) and is unfit? And all this at the expense of Ramesh Powar. Assuming Pathan was fit but not in form, would he play in the West Indies? I doubt it. And most people doubted it. India does have some depth in their pace bowling and Pathan would have in fact been a burden. He may have scored a few, but then India is well served in that department too. So where does Mr Pathan fit in? Out of the team, really!

India is not the only team doing these acrobatics. Shoaib Akhtar is yanking the PCB’s chain rather bad these days! First the PCB announced that Akhtar and fellow paceman Mohammed Asif had tested positive in a drugs test. Thereafter they got acquitted and have since refused to undergo any more tests. The PCB has been rather clear in its “no test, no tour” stand and one hopes they can stick to it. Akhtar toured South Africa also recently but could not manage to make any impact.

Finally, the Brett Lee issue had been put to rest. Stuart Clark gets the nod for the World Cup and the Australians must be devastated! Mind you Clark is a steady bowler but he is of the same style as McGrath and to some extent, Bracken. Line-and-length is his forte and he doesn’t have any real pace to frighten the batsmen. And that’s what Lee offered for his sudden bursts of pace could change the course of a match. But Australia, who had initially postponed Lee’s fitness test from Friday (Feb 23) to Tuesday (Feb 27), decided not to delay and give Clark enough time to be mentally prepared. Doubts over Andrew Symonds still linger and having been operated upon just three days ago, his confidence about making it to the tournament is amusing!

So at final count, only one confirmed drop and if you ask us, we see at least two more—Pathan and Akhtar—getting added to that list.

There’s an interesting trend over the last two years or so when teams batting second have easily chased down 300-plus run targets. Most of these have happened on smaller than usual grounds (like the ones in New Zealand) but the biggest of 434 was on a proper big ground in Johannesburg. Mike Hussey, for one, definitely believes that 400-plus scores could be a regular occurrence in the upcoming World Cup.

“From a batting point of view, we know we are going to need bigger scores. We could see some enormous scores in the World Cup. There are some very attacking players and teams around the world.”

Interesting insight that! Most grounds in the Caribbean are not as big as the ones in Australia so there may be some merit to his assessment but in saying what he has, he is also assuming that most other bowling sides are also as suspect as the current Australian one.

Batsmen often hold sway in the one-day game but one still doesn’t see scores of 400-plus being put up regularly or being chased down that easily. What happened in New Zealand was a bit of a freak occurrence and although lightning may not strike twice, New Zealand did!

Looking at the key batsmen from most major teams, it may be possible that this is the highest-scoring World Cup ever and scored nearing or just passing 300 may become normal. But 400 is a bit much. Not just yet, anyways. Hussey has also recently been quoted as saying that perhaps Australia needed to plan better. “Down to the last batsman,” he said. So the point is it is Australia’s planning that has not been right. So obviously the execution lacks!

Scores of 300-plus may just be here to stay what with bigger batsmen and smaller grounds but chasing these every match is still a while away.