Two mentally fragile teams will fight a battle for survival today when England takes on South Africa. The numbers have been crunched, the permutations and combinations done and the requirements are clear: England must win to keep their semi-final hopes alive. South Africa needs to win to ensure a place in the semi-final. But as always, there is some fine print.

Should England win today, they would be equal with South Africa on points and have a chance of making a clean entry into the semis if they beat West Indies in their last Super Eight match. But should England win today and lost to the West Indies, it would come down to net run rate between the two teams and once again, Graeme Smith’s men could well lose out. Their run rate is already in the negative and another loss won’t help it at all. Unless England loses disastrously to the West Indies, they should go through. All this, of course hinges on the fact that they need to win today. A loss today will be goodbye for England!

Coming to the match, England seems to be the fitter of the two sides with South Africa unsure of Herschelle Gibbs’ availability. England has its team sorted out and now it’s a question of performing. Easier said than done, of course, but England needs to draw on their experience of beating Australia in the CB Series final to make an impact. Plus the mini-battle of Kevin Pietersen v South Africa would also spur him on to perform better. One cannot ignore the lack of form that Andrew Flintoff has been going through. He needs to come good today and along with Paul Collingwood would be called upon in the closing stages to up the run rate.

But a bigger worry for England would be the top order. It’s a crucial match and they cannot afford to be 40/3 after 15 overs. Even if they are 60 after 15 overs, they need to ensure it’s without loss. And to this effect, Michael Vaughan needs to open with Andrew Strauss and not Ian Bell. Pietersen could come in at number three to boost scoring and offer some variety to the batting and Bell could help stabilise the middle order.

South Africa is suspect to good bowling. It could be fast or spin… doesn’t matter. So long as there is accuracy and some penetration backed up by above average fielding, they are susceptible to shooting themselves in the foot. With the right amount of pressure and some consistently good bowling and fielding, England can make sure that the Proteas go into their own shell and never come back out! Their batting can collapse especially if Gibbs isn’t around. Justin Kemp who is as reliable as an umbrella in a tornado could well replace him! Robin Peterson, the South African answer to Monty Panesar, isn’t close enough to being as good as Monty but South Africa has some good quicks. Unfortunately, they all get predictable after a while. That is, if the batting team can hold their ground long enough.

It should be a good match but unfortunately, both teams are capable of playing defensively and making it a question of survival rather than an emphatic statement. Someone will choke for sure. Will it be Vaughan or will it be Smith?