Yes, the race for the four semi-final slots is hotting up. And the equation is changing everyday. At the moment, New Zealand and Australia are certainties to make it through, but New Zealand has three very tough matches coming up. And if they lose all, they could still be eliminated! England, on the other hand perhaps has the clearest brief of all: beat South Africa and West Indies. But what are the various possibilities?
New Zealand plays Sri Lanka on April 12, South Africa on April 14 and Australia on April 20. They need to win one to make sure they are ahead of at least one of the five contenders. But after that, they also need to ensure that they avoid Australia in the semi-final. To do that, they would be better off winning two! Simple on paper, tough on the field.
South Africa’s loss to Bangladesh has made life tougher for them. They now must win both remaining matches, the one against New Zealand on April 14 and the one against England on April 17. But with both England and New Zealand needing to win, South Africa’s task becomes that much tougher. Their win over Ireland was convincing, but then again, that was Ireland!
For Sri Lanka, there is one match they can count on winning: against Ireland on April 18. But that may count for nothing if they fail to beat New Zealand and Australia (April 16). That is, of course, assuming that everything else goes according to plan for England and South Africa.
Australia is also potentially in a position from where they could be knocked out. They play Ireland next (April 13) followed by Sri Lanka (April 16) and New Zealand (April 20). They certainly will win against Ireland and that should take them through to the semi-final. Losing to Sri Lanka and New Zealand is a possibility but Australia has their record of being unbeaten in World Cups to maintain. So it won’t be an easy outing for either SL or NZ. The remaining 10 days of the Super Eight matches will be exciting with a crucial match almost every second day. And every match could prove to be the last one for someone. Or it could bring added hope.
With the West Indies already knocked out, the race is really on between England, South Africa and Sri Lanka for the remaining two slots. Sri Lanka still has one easy game left and it could all come down to the England v South Africa match on April 17 to see who is fourth semi-finalist. In some ways, England is reminiscent of Pakistan in 1992 when they came from the brink to take the Cup. Does England have the heart?